Entries tagged with “Labor Market”.
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Wed 17 Nov 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under temp
1 Comment
Tue 14 Sep 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
[2] Comments
Structural versus Cyclical Unemployment
Structural: Workers without jobs whose skills don’t match the types of jobs available.
Cyclical: The worker is available and willing to work but currently without work due to lack of demand in the economy.
Is our current situation structural unemployment? “The long-term unemployed—those who have been out of work for more than 26 weeks—now account for almost half of the jobless. A worry is that this cohort may become unemployable as their skills atrophy and they become increasingly detached from the informal networks that would lead them to new jobs.” http://www.economist.com/node/16889105
Christina D. Romer, Council of Economic Advisers believes unemployment is not structural but cyclical: http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/cea/Back-to-a-Better-Normal
When will it get better?
“In the ten-year window following severe financial crises, unemployment rates are significantly higher than in the decade that preceded the crisis… In ten of the fifteen post-crisis episodes, unemployment has never fallen back to its pre-crisis level, not in the decade that followed nor through end-2009.” http://www.aei.org/docLib/Reinhart-After-the-Fall-August-17.pdf
“Between December 2007 – the official first month of the recession – and December 2009, the U.S. economy lost more than eight million jobs. Even if the economy creates jobs from now on at a pace equal to the fastest four years of the early 2000s expansion, we will not return to the December 2007 level of employment until March 2014. And, by the time we return to the number of jobs we had in December 2007, population growth will have increased the potential labor force by about 6.5 million jobs. If job growth matched the fastest four years in the most recent economic expansion, the economy would not catch up to the expanded labor force until April 2021. Even if job creation rates were as high as the fastest four years of the 1990s recovery, we would not return to pre-recession employment levels until September 2012, and we would not cover the increase in the potential labor force until September 2014.” http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/urgent-need-2010-07.pdf
Should the Fed do more?
UO professor Tim Duy says: “In sum, what Bernanke actually said is that yes, there is more that we can do, but really none of it is effective and we do not intend to go there unless things get really, really bad. How bad? Your guess is as good as his:
‘At this juncture, the Committee has not agreed on specific criteria or triggers for further action…’
They haven’t even agreed on current action… Paul Krugman sees the current situation as a monumental failure of Bernanke to follow his own research…
Seriously, millions of people looking for work, for years, according to the Fed’s own forecasts, and Bernanke is concerned about permanent damage to the federal funds market?” (emphasis mine) http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2010/08/no-clothes.html
Mon 30 Aug 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
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Richard Florida’s team crunches the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to show job growth across the states. Oregon comes in within the mid-range.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/where-the-jobs-will-be/61459/
Tue 13 Jul 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
[2] Comments
This just in…from Oregon Employment Forecast, Amy Vander Vliet, Regional Economist, State of Oregon.
“…with no foreseeable ‘magic bullet’ in the near future, OEA [Office of Economic Anaylsis]
expects a slow start to the recovery.
6 major industries are expected to contract this year
3 will expand & 1 will be flat
Construction will suffer the steepest decline by far (-15.0%) in anticipation of continued weakness in the housing market and tough times for commercial real estate brought on by tight credit, rising vacancy rates, and low demand.
Manufacturing will decline in step with the nation, although at a slower pace than OEA forecasted earlier in the year.
The outlook for high tech has brightened; chip sales are up and expected to go higher.
Financial activities will lose more jobs this year before starting to rebound in 2011.
The government sector will cut positions as state and local governments struggle to balance their budgets.
Education & health services weathered the recession better than every other sector. It will be the fastest growing sector this year (+1.9%) due almost entirely to the expanding health care component.
Professional & business services will show signs of life after suffering sharp losses in 2009.
Leisure & hospitality should benefit from the consumer slowly relaxing their grip on their wallet.
The information sector, which includes software, is expected to end this year flat compared to 2009” [emphasis mine.]
Thu 8 Jul 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
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While Congress debates federal deficit spending, the situation for American Workers is troubling.
Unemployment for men is worse than for women and the outlook is not good.
For older workers, the risk that to the federal budget is that more of them will be funded permanently on disability rather than temporarily on unemployment insurance. Cutting Off Unemployment Benefits Could Worsen Deficit. It also means that we will permanently loose expertise that could be useful once the economy bounces back.
For young workers, the lack of opportunity to gain skills can have a lasting, even permanent effect on their future prospects. Something’s Not Working.
In “Outliers,” Malcom Gladwell gives evidence for his claim regarding the “10,000 hour rule.” The assertion is that mastery of a skill or task is achieved after 10,000 hours of practice.
If young workers don’t get started on their skill development, how will this impact their potential?
If late career workers cannot find work, does it make sense for them to start over on a new skill very late in their working life?
Job creation now is an investment in our future. Unemployment is costsly. Disinvestment now is “penny wise and pound foolish.”
Mon 28 Jun 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
1 Comment
University of Chicago researchers have concluded that obtaining a GED provides no labor market advantage to the high school drop out.
If borne out by other research, this would have a profound impact on our view of the usefulness of the GED.
The research is summarized b y Mary Pilon of Real Time Economics on the WSJ site here:
GED Offers ‘Minimal Value’ – Real Time Economics – WSJ.
Sun 20 Jun 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
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When decision-makers want to know how to target workforce development funds, they turn to labor market economists. With limited dollars available, workforce researchers try to get the best information possible about how to spend training dollars to get the best bang for the buck.
Labor market economists working for the state have developed the “Oregon Employment Department’s Occupational Prioritization for Training model.” It is a best guess at which jobs will be in demand, that pay a living wage and have a reasonable number of expected openings.
So what are the recommendations?
The jobs prioritized for training dollars overall statewide are:
- Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists
- Pharmacists
- Physicians and Surgeons
- Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers
- Dental Hygienists
- Physical Therapists
- Surgical Technologists
- Registered Nurses
- Fire Fighters
- Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists
- Medical and Health Services Managers
- Occupational Therapists
- General and Operations Managers
- Managers, All Other
- Supervisors and Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers
- Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Representatives, Technical and Scientific Products
- Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
- Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors
- Industrial Production Managers
- Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Representatives, Except Technical and Scientific Products
- Radiologic, CAT, and MRI Technologists and Technicians
- Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians
Each region of the state has its own list based on local labor market data.
Find your region or read the whole report here.
Mon 7 Jun 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
No Comments
Want to find out more about the job? Click the link:
Chemeketa Community College Employment Site.
Tue 1 Jun 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
No Comments
In this column in the Washington Post, Christina Romer discusses the emergency funding bill before congress: Christina D. Romer – How to prevent huge teacher layoffs.
Wed 26 May 2010
Posted by Becky Washington, MPA under Uncategorized
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Unemployment for college graduates is one of the highest ever recorded. This piece on Talk of the Nation discusses labor market demand and prospects for graduating students: Job Pool For 2010 Grads Crowded With 2009 Grads : NPR.
